How Long Until Peace?
Time is running out—this war can't continue or else we're doomed.
“So that’s the dire situation—we all have to choose whether to be passive or active. And time is running out.”
“So you can see a situation where Russia is gaining control over southern Ukraine—this control includes the corridor to Russia. This Russian control is disastrous when it comes to Ukrainian interests.”
“Things are going in a terrifying and dangerous and disastrous direction in terms of Ukrainian interests—it makes no sense strategically for the Ukrainians to want to keep fighting.”
The war in Ukraine is driving inflation—allowing this inflation to continue will probably bring down the Democrats in November, will possibly bring down US democracy itself, and will probably foreclose the opportunities to deal with global heating. And the war is also starving millions of people around the world and threatening radical political instability around the world.
So we have to end this war ASAP or else we will all regret having been passive about this issue.
Inflation
I read a grim 10 June 2022 piece from Dean Baker about “sharp jumps” in inflation—I took these notes about what Baker thinks about the war’s relevance:
stabilizing the situation in Ukraine would ease some of the “speculative fears” and would presumably lead to a “drop in world oil prices”
it would be even better to achieve a ceasefire
“There is a similar story with food prices, with the price of wheat and other grains soaring following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.”
“Here also, a cease fire, or at least an arrangement to allow Ukrainian grain to reach world markets, could make a big difference.”
“The food and energy story will depend largely on the course of the war in Ukraine.”
It’s not like the war in Ukraine is the only thing that’s driving inflation—I need to do a detailed piece on what the whole story is with inflation and there are arguments about the extent to which corporate power is to blame—but the war is a big deal regarding inflation.
What’s Our Responsibility?
So the stakes are dire for the entire planet—what can be done?
The obvious steps would be for Washington to (A) stop blocking diplomacy and (B) start facilitating diplomacy. That’s what people in the West can push for—that’s what we have control over and that’s our responsibility.
And pursuing (A) and (B) doesn’t mean that the Kremlin will necessarily agree to anything and doesn’t mean that the Ukrainians will necessarily want to stop fighting—we can only do our best.
And pursuing (A) and (B) doesn’t mean that we could ever entertain cutting off military aid. Cutting off military aid would mean leaving the Ukrainians to die at the hands of the Russian aggressors, so if the Ukrainians want to keep fighting then it’s not like we can somehow coerce them—with threats of cutting off military aid—into pursuing diplomacy.
So that’s the dire situation—we all have to choose whether to be passive or active. And time is running out.
What’s the Smart Strategy?
There’s a question about whether it’s even a smart strategy for the Ukrainians to keep fighting—I wrote this to a scholar who told me that they absolutely agreed with what I was saying:
I heard that fighting longer is a bad strategy, since the Russians will further entrench themselves and extend their demands, so apparently this isn’t a good plan if you want to have a strong position at the negotiating table.
Just look at these notes that I took on an 11 June 2022 NYT piece:
“A war in Ukraine that began with a Russian debacle as its forces tried and failed to take Kyiv has seemingly begun to turn, with Russia now picking off regional targets, Ukraine lacking the weaponry it needs and Western support for the war effort fraying in the face of rising gas prices and galloping inflation.”
“the heady early days of the war—when the Ukrainian underdog held off a deluded and inept aggressor and Mr. Putin’s indiscriminate bombardment united the West in outrage—have begun to fade”
“In their place is a war that is evolving into what analysts increasingly say will be a long slog, placing growing pressure on the governments and economies of Western countries and others throughout the world.”
“Nowhere is that slog more evident than in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.”
“Russia also appears to be making headway in establishing control in towns it has captured, including the leveled Black Sea port of Mariupol.”
“With inflation hitting levels not seen for four decades in the United States and Britain, financial markets tumbling, interest rates rising and food shortages looming, such a drift in focus away from a long war toward more pressing domestic concerns may be inevitable.”
“The war is not to blame for all of these developments, but it does exacerbate most of them—and there is no end in sight.”
“With midterm elections in the United States only months away, President Biden and the Democrats can ill afford a campaign season dominated by talk of $5-a-gallon gasoline and near-double-digit inflation.”
And just look at these notes that I took on an 8 June 2022 NYT piece:
“Even as Russia hammers eastern Ukraine with heavy artillery, it is cementing its grip on the south, claiming to have restored roads, rails and a critical freshwater canal that could help it claim permanent dominion over the region.”
“The extension of Russian infrastructure into the occupied south could allow Moscow to fortify a ‘land bridge’ between Russia and Crimea and build on efforts to claim control through the introduction of Russian currency and the appointment of proxy officials.”
“Russia’s defense minister, Sergei K. Shoigu, said on Tuesday that the military, working with Russian Railways, had repaired about 750 miles of track in southeastern Ukraine and set the conditions for traffic to flow from Russia through Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region to occupied territory in Kherson and Crimea.”
“Mr. Shoigu also said that water was once again flowing to Crimea through the North Crimean Canal—an important source of freshwater that Ukraine cut off in 2014 after the Kremlin annexed the peninsula. Mr. Shoigu claimed that car traffic was now open between ‘continental’ Russia and Crimea.”
“Moscow’s announcement that it was extending its ties to the occupied south seemed certain to be greeted in Ukraine as further evidence of Russia’s determination to break Ukraine apart and pillage its natural resources.”
So you can see a situation where Russia is gaining control over southern Ukraine—this control includes the corridor to Russia. This Russian control is disastrous when it comes to Ukrainian interests.
Things are going in a terrifying and dangerous and disastrous direction in terms of Ukrainian interests—it makes no sense strategically for the Ukrainians to want to keep fighting.