See below an interview with Dean Baker about America’s future. (I added hyperlinks.)
See also my piece on Baker and my previous interviews with Baker here and here.
1) What are your broad comments on the future of US politics?
I’m reasonably optimistic at this point. Biden has proven to be far more progressive than many of us expected. If he carries through with his policies and has something to show in terms of improving people’s lives, the Dems will likely hang on to Congress and he will be able to get re-elected. This should leave room for continuing progressive reforms. I hope that we can get things like open-source research for prescription-drugs—and tax-credits for creative-work—on the agenda. These can continue the momentum.
2) At what point will the Dems get a chance to give statehood to DC and Puerto Rico? What will be the political implications of that? Will that mean a major shift of power in the Senate?
This would require getting around the filibuster, which means that Manchin and Sinema would have to go along. I put that at around 50-50. Neither has ever said a flat-out “No”, but they are appearing to put up a fight. That’s what you’d expect them to do even if their intention was to go along with overriding the filibuster.
3) What kind of “constitutional hardball” can the Dems play going forward? David Faris writes that the Dems could try various strategies. Obstructionism. Procedural warfare. Statehood for DC and Puerto Rico. Breaking California into several states. Creating a larger House of Representatives. Passing a new voting-rights act. Reforming the Supreme Court. Expanding the Supreme Court.
They can add states without a constitutional amendment. They could also break up states, but I doubt that CA would go along with this and I don’t think that the Dems would break up a blue state if its political leaders didn’t want to be broken up.
4) Is the GOP ultimately a dying party, and what can the GOP do to turn that situation around? Can the GOP start to pursue progressive economic policies to attract voters?
I hope that as a party of white-grievance it’s dying. But the party could have a rebirth if it actually supported some populist measures—I don’t know if they can, because their big contributors are not interested in a populist program.
If the Dems don’t deliver economically for non-college-educated workers then it could have a very solid future just by not being the Democrats. Most non-college whites will likely stick with the Republicans no matter what—but if the Dems’ policies don’t produce any economic gains then the Republicans can expect to win non-college whites by huge margins and also to make further gains among Hispanics/Blacks.
5) In the big picture, isn’t the US headed for a constitutional crisis? The Senate is radically undemocratic. But the Senate can only be reformed with Senate support. It’s a built-in flaw in the Constitution.
I doubt that we’ll see a constitutional crisis, even though it’s a bad story. Even though it’s highly undemocratic, people exaggerate how biased it is against the Dems. If you look at the ten smallest states, VT, RI, DE, NH, and HI all have two Democratic senators. MA and MT each have one. So the skewing is not that awful. Also, it’s worth mentioning that in the not-distant past ND had two Democratic senators and SD had one. (I don’t know that this will change back. But the fact is, few political scientists predicted the solid-R Midwest two decades ago and I don’t think that political scientists are that much smarter now than they were then.)
6) What can be done about this constitutional crisis? How will this play out?
Admitting DC as a state would be a good start. PR too, but that’s more complicated.
7) What are the prospects for eliminating the Electoral College, and what would that mean if it could be done?
The best hope is the idea being pushed by many where states agree to have their electoral votes go to the winner of the popular vote as soon as states with a majority of electoral votes agree to this commitment. This would make the EC irrelevant. The problem is that SCOTUS may rule this unconstitutional as a compact of states that disadvantages other states.
8) Is there any argument against elimination of the Electoral College?
Not that makes sense, as far as I can see.